In my example earlier: people want to keep their pace. Why fight when all you need is a credit card to open up a cloud somewhere? Employees will do this. Managers as well: they too feel the fight and see easier, more efficient ways out. Why remove “your inbox is almost full” e-mails daily when there’s 25 GB of inbox space waiting to be unlocked for 5 EUR / month? Prediction 2: Cloud momentum will rise.
Silverlight is dead? The Web is dead? Apps are dead? If you’ve followed Twitter these days, those predictions were made. I say: nonsense. I see things converge. Smaller, less bloated but more agile ways of working, whether if it’s trough a small app or through a small, focused website. The actual technology will not matter, the way people work with it will. Prediction 3: UX and how we use apps will matter, technology will be supportive.
People want to work together. Move forward, together. One way of doing that is to open up your silos. Create API’s which focus on exposing information. Don’t focus on the software consuming those. Maybe it’s better to create an API instead of creating an extranet application. Let the consumers decide how they’ll work with that data. Prediction 4: API’s.
Some business models are dead. Large enterprises still exist because money keeps flowing in. But what if the consumerization stops that? Look at the music industry. People wanted fast and easy access to their music. Nothing happened in the industry. Consumers did their thing and invented things like Napster. Until one company with a fruit logo was smart enough to see a business model in this. Be prepared. Consumers, be it in their personal or work life, may no longer be happy with your business model. They’ll request change or change it themselves. If you don’t, you’ll end up like the music industry, fighting a fight that you can never win. The book industry got it right: they changed the way books are being distributed to e-book readers. Sure, there are alternative and illegal ways to read a book, but they are winning their fight. Small change but supporting the consumer. Prediction 5: Business and revenue models will (have to) change.
Smaller projects. You probably know those two-year projects were a lot of stuff gets analyzed and implemented. Project fails. 2 years of money and effort wasted. But since we don’t want to see this failure bubble up or down means that we do put this thing in production. Which forces users to start consumerizing faster. The return of the MS Access database! Prediction 6: Projects will become smaller and more focused.
Those are my predictions. And all are the result of consumerization and technology enabling people. I don’t know if 2012 will bring all of these. I do think some of them will start emerging. Be prepared for change.
PS: I promise, my next blog post will be about angle brackets again.
PS 2: I am not targeting any specific government or specific enterprise.
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